Out of nowhere it happens — A significant and exciting opportunity presents itself, and it’s yours to lose. This is the moment you’ve been waiting for, right? But here’s the catch: when something exciting is easily accessible to you, it’s surprisingly difficult to judge if it will actually lead to success. This seductiveness can be misleading, pulling our focus away from other potentially better opportunities that might be less obvious or alluring. This phenomenon, where we assume that the most apparent and attractive path is also an inevitable path to success, is what I call the “Inevitability Fallacy.”
The problem with inevitability
The Inevitability Fallacy leads us to believe that the combination of opportunity and excitement is a proxy for success. But consider that often, the opportunities that fall into our laps aren’t the result of strategic planning or foresight; they’re the result of path dependence, a kind of “this came my way, so it must be destiny” mindset. Path dependence rarely leads to long-term success, but it does create the illusion that there is a correct and obvious choice in the moment it’s unfolding.
Also, even when short-term success is achieved, abusing this approach can carry hidden costs. Perhaps most important, complacency breeds within organizations when we latch on to emergent and alluring opportunities. We’re tricked into believing we’re on the right track without needing to innovate further. This is a dangerous mindset, stifling growth by implicitly discouraging questioning and ideation.
Moving beyond inevitability
So, what’s the antidote to falling for the Inevitability Fallacy?
- Reflect on goals: Sit down, take out a notepad, and start jotting. What are your goals? Why are these goals important? What are you willing to sacrifice to achieve them, and what are the potential costs? This process helps to clear the fog of excitement and allows you to see the multiple paths in front of you more clearly.
- Consider long-term impacts: Every choice has a ripple effect. By thinking long-term, you are essentially zooming out to see how today’s decisions impact tomorrow’s outcomes. Will this significant and alluring opportunity matter in a year? In five? How does it align with your overall strategy?
- Value depth over speed: Depth creates roots, and roots = sustainability. True progress is measured by the amount of roots you nurture, which comes from understanding and improving processes, building lasting relationships, and cultivating an environment where innovation can thrive.
- Embrace uncertainty and potential failure: Every decision carries a risk of failure, but without stepping into that uncertainty, growth is stifled. The fear of failure can paralyze - and in a weak moment, be the cause of falling for the Inevitability Fallacy - but it can also be a powerful motivator to rigorously evaluate and prepare for the challenges ahead.
We’ve all at one time or another chased after some mirage of success while ignoring a substantial, though perhaps less glamorous, opportunity requiring hard work and patience. By recognizing this Inevitability Fallacy for what it is - a cognitive bias - we can make smarter, more strategic decisions that are aligned with our long-term goals and values.